Kenny Lofton: Hall of Famer?

A week ago, America's greatest living writer Joe Posnanski (with all apologies to Michael Chabon, despite being nominally a sportswriter, Posnanski covers a lot broader turf), in explaining his Hall of Fame vote for Tim Raines, analyzed the greatest leadoff hitters -- in that they met certain criteria (lineup position was not actually among these). The takeaway from it was that Raines was a clear hall of famer. But that wasn't the end of it. Rather, as a final note, Posnanski added: The other thing about that "great leadoff hitters" list? Yeah, Kenny Lofton was probably a better player than you remembered."

Now Rob Neyer is on the Kenny Lofton bandwagon. Well, maybe, like Posnanski, he doesn't say Lofton is a Hall of Famer, but he certainly implies it's a question worthy of consideration. Neyer states, "I believe Barry Larkin gets in next year. That leaves seven holdovers in 2013 ... who will be joined by Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Craig Biggio, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, and the terribly underrated Kenny Lofton."

And I guess I'm just taken aback by it.

I love Kenny Lofton. Love the guy unabashedly. Lest there be any doubt, time for a confession: I am the only person on planet Earth who owns a Kenny Lofton Philadelphia Phillies jersey. And I have no doubt that includes Kenny, who can't possibly keep all of the jerseys he's had. (To explain this: I live within an hour's drive of Philadelphia (for a few more weeks, anyway), I've spent more time at Citizens Bank Park than any other ballpark (except Rosenblatt Stadium) by a factor of at least 10, I'm guessing, so I'm a well-wisher for the Phillies, though it's become hard to even wish them well as they mutate into the Yankees.) Even though I had high hopes for Max Ramirez, bringing back Lofton in 2007 was a highlight of the season. He was my favorite Indians player back in the glory years -- his absence was the reason '97 really felt like a fraud (although the fact that the Indians were also pretty bad that year contributed), and I can see how he could have been a hall of fame player -- but that's if his career had gone differently.

He has an OPS+ of 107. Now, defense certainly could be a factor, he was always an exciting defender to watch (what Dewan would say about Kenny Lofton, I have no clue), dWAR on baseball-reference speaks highly of his defense (+11.9 for his career). But that makes him a slightly above average hitter (by OPS standards) with a good stolen base total and superb defense.

I think the Tim Raines love is confusing people into assuming anyone who was great at stealing bases and has their greatness forgotten because they became a journeyman could be a hall of famer. He had a great peak and all, but so did Eric Davis. And it's not even as if his career numbers are dragged down because he went through years where he should have hung it up -- he was just within a hair of average every year from 2000 until the end.

Maybe if we had a magic wand that factors out the 70 home run seasons, then Lofton's numbers start to look much more hall of fame worthy. There's not a hint of any sort of issues with Lofton. He was always a world-class athlete and seemed to be a great guy. But as much as I want to I'm not seeing how he fits in the Hall of Fame, unless he's the sabermetric guys' paean to the era of the stolen base.

Now if you adopt the whole belief that getting on base is the only part of the story, okay, there's a chance. He had a very good OBP -- .372. But even if you use that as the lone criteria, it's not terribly helpful for him.

Even accounting for the theory/fact/myth (you choose) that walks were largely disfavored in the 1970s, he doesn't fare all that well. Of players with more than 8,000 plate appearances -- Lofton's OBP ranks 37th. Yes, that's behind already Hall of Famers like Rickey Henderson (.401), Rod Carew (.400), Joe Morgan (.394) and Mike Schmidt (.380) and it's behind surefire Hall of Fame-caliber players (note how we can no longer declare anyone with biceps a surefire Hall of Famer) like Barry Bonds (.444), Frank Thomas (.419), and (grumble) Derek Jeter (.385). But it's also behind people who are either questionable to get in, like Edgar Martinez (who had an OBP of .418 and ranks fourth on the list -- talk about being underappreciated in his time) or John Olerud (.398).

And it's also behind a number who have already missed, like Keith Hernandez (.384)(who I believe is still the consensus best defensive first baseman of all-time and whose dWAR exceeds Lofton's), Will Clark (.384), and Willie Randolph (.373).

Admittedly, most of those players are first basemen -- there's obviously a different criteria for such players. But it's the ones who are closest to Lofton that make it the hardest. Brett Butler (0.4%), Willie Randolph (1.1%), Ken Singleton (0%), and Tony Phillips (0.2%) all finish above him on this list. Even if they were all added together, they wouldn't have lasted to a second ballot.

Those players can be distinguished -- Butler was apparently a lousy defensive center fielder and had marginal success with stealing bases (though the SB total is close), Phillips was never more than a utility player, Randolph didn't steal nearly as many bases as you'd think (only 271 for his career), and Singleton...well, Singleton stole 21 bases in his career. But I don't know how much can really be said to put Lofton on the pedestal of serious Hall of Fame consideration.