Seattle traffic officer cites Chicago White Sox GM for jaywalking.
38% of everything is right with the world. An all-time high!
My favorite is the ridiculous slant that Whitesox.com put on the article. Jaywalking is rarely ticketed in big cities, which Williams tried to explain to the officer. Stupid police officer, not understanding what Williams was so kind to attempt to explain to him. Doesn't he know anything about what violations of the law he's obligated to ignore because they don't enforce them in most cities? I'm pretty sure that the Chicago police have exclusive authority to enforce Kenny Williams' inability to read a don't walk sign, and fear we may have another beer summit coming up.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Monday, August 10, 2009
The Age of Incredulity, anyone?
There's really a tale of two cities in the AL Central. Cleveland, the team that's stocking all the teams fading in the playoff races in the AL and NL because they apparently can't afford to pay Ben Francisco (more on that righteous indignation later), and Chicago, where they're taking on salary left and right to make a run to...lord knows what. The latter city is now going to be known as the place where once-five-tool outfielders go to die -- very wealthily. Not content with just three horsemen of the RF apocalypse in the forms of Milton Bradley, Kosuke Fukudome, and Jermaine Dye, Kenny Williams has acquired Alex Rios from the Toronto Blue Jays for a song.
The song? Squeeze's immortal classic "Take Me, I'm Yours." (Not nearly as good as "Pulling Mussels (from the Shell)")
So the consensus around baseball is that Kenny Williams is an idiot. I'm inclined to agree because he continues to employ Ozzie Guillen, but as questionable as this deal is, I really have a hard time seeing it completely blow up on the White Sox.
Oh, the contract's not good, that much is obvious. In 2010, Rios will make $9.7 million. In 2011, that number's $12 million. In 2012, $12 million more. In 2013, why not, $12.5 million. In 2014, $12.5 million more. And in 2015, the White Sox now hold a critical team option (whew, that makes it all better) for $13.5 million. But is the contract really that bad? I don't think so. The contract info comes from Cot's Baseball Contracts, one of the three or four most useful baseball sites I know of, and I cannot commend it enough.
1) Rios' numbers were down last year, and haven't improved much this year, with his OPS+ actually falling below 100. I'll grant you that's a bad sign, especially following up last year's disappointing year (where Rios posted a 111 OPS+). Of course, if you, like me, are the only person in the world who applies MOPS (add SB to total bases, subtract CS), then you factor in the speed as well, which puts Rios at a .780 MOPS. Not great, but not far off from the kind of player for whom you expect to pay money.
2) The primary decay factor on Rios appears to be his speed. This isn't a good sign for a guy who's 28 years old. But if you look at his numbers from 2008 to 2009, the falloff is in BABIP (.335 in 2008 to .294 in 2009). Moreover, since his peak year in 2007, when he grounded into only 9 double plays, he hit into 20 last year and has already mustered 14 this year. And the decay in slugging isn't in home runs (where he's on pace to hit several more than he did last year), it's in doubles, where he notched 47 last year but is on pace for only 37 this year.
3) Rios' BABIP this year is .294, after he'd posted numbers circling around .330 for his career. .294 is a low figure for a player with any sort of power or any sort of speed, I would expect it to come up. BABIP's not a vastly-reliable number for position players, but it means something.
4) Though his speed's falling off, he's a dead even 0 on UZR, meaning he's a league average right fielder. His arm in right field has either waned or baserunners have simply learned their lesson, because after posting more than 10 OF assists in 3 of the last 5 years, he's only mustered 4 this year. So, he's a considerable upgrade in RF from Jermaine Dye, but not much else. However, his career UZR is +14, meaning that he's saved his team an average of 14 runs each year he's been in the big leagues. That's...phenomenal.
5) Here's the biggest concern I would have if I'm a White Sox fan looking at his 2009 numbers. His numbers on the road are atrocious. In every category. You take this guy out of the Rogers Centre and he's a .237/.278/.339 hitter. What's more, he can't run (though some of this is attributable to him getting on that much less -- 14 steals at home (1 caught stealing), 5 on the road (2 caught stealing).
And here's where I tell you all this is bullshit and I think Kenny Williams is going to end up with at least a non-disgraceful acquisition out of this. The home-road splits are a 2009-only phenomenon. Although I'd normally suspect that a guy who makes his game based on speed is just flying because of the turf in the dome, but his past home-road splits are pretty even. But now you're getting him off the turf, which is admittedly now FieldTurf, but is still not going to be as kind on his legs as natural grass. FieldTurf leads to a lot of muscle pulls and strains -- exactly the sorts of injuries that reduce Rios to a remarkably mediocre player.
Rios is an insurance policy, because the White Sox have just about no one in the minors worth owning, particularly in the outfield. They have no high-level outfield prospects, they have Jermaine Dye in the last year of his own prohibitively expensive contract, and they have been playing Brent Lillibridge and Scott Podsednik in center field. Rios solves at least one of those problems, because now they have a long-term investment, but also have cost certainty. Considering that the economy is showing signs of modest recovery and that baseball has always outstripped the economy in cost growth, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Rios' contract looks pretty commensurate with his production in a year or two. Keep in mind that Alex Rodriguez is currently making $30+ million and Manny and Teixeira are making $20+ million dollars. I'd give Rios a much better chance of living up to his contract value than, say, Ryan Howard.
And, barring economic growth leading to Rios becoming an adequate deal, he should put up a little better power numbers in U.S. Cellular. Though the two are roughly equivalent in park factors for 2009, U.S. Cellular is consistently among the top five home run generating parks in baseball -- the SkyDome is 8th this year, but has varied by about ten spots from that spot. Fangraphs had a similar analysis, though I'd hesitate to go as far as they will, because the Rogers Centre is usually in the top 10, last year appears to be a one-off.
Also consider that the White Sox might not have had much in the way of alternatives in 2010. The top free agent corner outfielders? Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Bobby Abreu, Jermaine Dye, Andruw Jones, and Johnny Damon. Bay and Holliday will cost far more than the $9.7 million Rios would draw -- and the other four are both old and defensively deficient. The only other outfielder on the free agent list for 2010 that might spark any interest is Rick Ankiel, and Scott Boras would probably expect to be paid about $9.7 million for his lousy production. Trading for an outfielder isn't an option, because as I pointed out, this system is bare. They have Dayan Viciedo, they have Tyler Flowers, ...and then they have little else. They traded most of their pitchers for Peavy, they traded Brandon Allen for Tony Pena...and their other prospects are a couple years away (Jordan Danks) or underachieving (John Shelby Jr.).
So could this deal be a terrible one? Sure. If Rios learns to enjoy Chicago deep dish pizza and loses a step, they're overpaying out the nose for a mediocre corner outfielder. But in the meantime, it gets them a player who might benefit from life away from FieldTurf, can hit both left and right handed pitching, and can fill any number of holes in a porous system.
And it's a great move because I'm an Indians fan who would be forced to admit that hates the White Sox more than anything on this earth when it really comes down to it. That pessimism seals the deal. Great move for Kenny Williams.
The song? Squeeze's immortal classic "Take Me, I'm Yours." (Not nearly as good as "Pulling Mussels (from the Shell)")
So the consensus around baseball is that Kenny Williams is an idiot. I'm inclined to agree because he continues to employ Ozzie Guillen, but as questionable as this deal is, I really have a hard time seeing it completely blow up on the White Sox.
Oh, the contract's not good, that much is obvious. In 2010, Rios will make $9.7 million. In 2011, that number's $12 million. In 2012, $12 million more. In 2013, why not, $12.5 million. In 2014, $12.5 million more. And in 2015, the White Sox now hold a critical team option (whew, that makes it all better) for $13.5 million. But is the contract really that bad? I don't think so. The contract info comes from Cot's Baseball Contracts, one of the three or four most useful baseball sites I know of, and I cannot commend it enough.
1) Rios' numbers were down last year, and haven't improved much this year, with his OPS+ actually falling below 100. I'll grant you that's a bad sign, especially following up last year's disappointing year (where Rios posted a 111 OPS+). Of course, if you, like me, are the only person in the world who applies MOPS (add SB to total bases, subtract CS), then you factor in the speed as well, which puts Rios at a .780 MOPS. Not great, but not far off from the kind of player for whom you expect to pay money.
2) The primary decay factor on Rios appears to be his speed. This isn't a good sign for a guy who's 28 years old. But if you look at his numbers from 2008 to 2009, the falloff is in BABIP (.335 in 2008 to .294 in 2009). Moreover, since his peak year in 2007, when he grounded into only 9 double plays, he hit into 20 last year and has already mustered 14 this year. And the decay in slugging isn't in home runs (where he's on pace to hit several more than he did last year), it's in doubles, where he notched 47 last year but is on pace for only 37 this year.
3) Rios' BABIP this year is .294, after he'd posted numbers circling around .330 for his career. .294 is a low figure for a player with any sort of power or any sort of speed, I would expect it to come up. BABIP's not a vastly-reliable number for position players, but it means something.
4) Though his speed's falling off, he's a dead even 0 on UZR, meaning he's a league average right fielder. His arm in right field has either waned or baserunners have simply learned their lesson, because after posting more than 10 OF assists in 3 of the last 5 years, he's only mustered 4 this year. So, he's a considerable upgrade in RF from Jermaine Dye, but not much else. However, his career UZR is +14, meaning that he's saved his team an average of 14 runs each year he's been in the big leagues. That's...phenomenal.
5) Here's the biggest concern I would have if I'm a White Sox fan looking at his 2009 numbers. His numbers on the road are atrocious. In every category. You take this guy out of the Rogers Centre and he's a .237/.278/.339 hitter. What's more, he can't run (though some of this is attributable to him getting on that much less -- 14 steals at home (1 caught stealing), 5 on the road (2 caught stealing).
And here's where I tell you all this is bullshit and I think Kenny Williams is going to end up with at least a non-disgraceful acquisition out of this. The home-road splits are a 2009-only phenomenon. Although I'd normally suspect that a guy who makes his game based on speed is just flying because of the turf in the dome, but his past home-road splits are pretty even. But now you're getting him off the turf, which is admittedly now FieldTurf, but is still not going to be as kind on his legs as natural grass. FieldTurf leads to a lot of muscle pulls and strains -- exactly the sorts of injuries that reduce Rios to a remarkably mediocre player.
Rios is an insurance policy, because the White Sox have just about no one in the minors worth owning, particularly in the outfield. They have no high-level outfield prospects, they have Jermaine Dye in the last year of his own prohibitively expensive contract, and they have been playing Brent Lillibridge and Scott Podsednik in center field. Rios solves at least one of those problems, because now they have a long-term investment, but also have cost certainty. Considering that the economy is showing signs of modest recovery and that baseball has always outstripped the economy in cost growth, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Rios' contract looks pretty commensurate with his production in a year or two. Keep in mind that Alex Rodriguez is currently making $30+ million and Manny and Teixeira are making $20+ million dollars. I'd give Rios a much better chance of living up to his contract value than, say, Ryan Howard.
And, barring economic growth leading to Rios becoming an adequate deal, he should put up a little better power numbers in U.S. Cellular. Though the two are roughly equivalent in park factors for 2009, U.S. Cellular is consistently among the top five home run generating parks in baseball -- the SkyDome is 8th this year, but has varied by about ten spots from that spot. Fangraphs had a similar analysis, though I'd hesitate to go as far as they will, because the Rogers Centre is usually in the top 10, last year appears to be a one-off.
Also consider that the White Sox might not have had much in the way of alternatives in 2010. The top free agent corner outfielders? Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Bobby Abreu, Jermaine Dye, Andruw Jones, and Johnny Damon. Bay and Holliday will cost far more than the $9.7 million Rios would draw -- and the other four are both old and defensively deficient. The only other outfielder on the free agent list for 2010 that might spark any interest is Rick Ankiel, and Scott Boras would probably expect to be paid about $9.7 million for his lousy production. Trading for an outfielder isn't an option, because as I pointed out, this system is bare. They have Dayan Viciedo, they have Tyler Flowers, ...and then they have little else. They traded most of their pitchers for Peavy, they traded Brandon Allen for Tony Pena...and their other prospects are a couple years away (Jordan Danks) or underachieving (John Shelby Jr.).
So could this deal be a terrible one? Sure. If Rios learns to enjoy Chicago deep dish pizza and loses a step, they're overpaying out the nose for a mediocre corner outfielder. But in the meantime, it gets them a player who might benefit from life away from FieldTurf, can hit both left and right handed pitching, and can fill any number of holes in a porous system.
And it's a great move because I'm an Indians fan who would be forced to admit that hates the White Sox more than anything on this earth when it really comes down to it. That pessimism seals the deal. Great move for Kenny Williams.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Chief Wahoo's Trail of Tears -- a Cleveland Indians blog
For all the fans that the Cleveland Indians have, and there are a great many, so long as you only conduct your fan census more than 30 miles from the intersection of Carnegie and Ontario, there's not much in the way of Indians blogs out there. Given that all the Indians have for several years is rampant speculation, now seemed like a uniquely suitable time to put my unwarranted speculation, moaning, and Eric Wedge-criticizing into one convenient location.
The Indians are now down, by last count, six players -- three of whom should have been dealt (Betancourt, Garko, and DeRosa -- in that order), three of whom absolutely should not have been dealt (Martinez, Francisco and Lee -- in that order, for reasons I'll cover later). Somehow, however, the Indians still have the two players that everyone knows they needed to trade -- Jamey Carroll and Carl Pavano. Pavano just threw 8 innings of one-run ball, so perhaps his trade value will have increased slightly, but I won't hold my breath. Jamey Carroll just needed to be traded because he's on his way out anyway and he's cheap enough that borderline contenders can just claim him on waivers and barely care if they get stuck with him.
And, because they've now dumped all those players, they are up one Eric Wedge, who has gained an additional year of immunity for incompetence, because the Indians would never fire a manager because he's incapable of competing with inferior talent. Well, the post-Mark Shapiro-firing-Charlie Manuel-for-exactly-that-reason-Indians wouldn't, anyway. Not that it did John McNamara, Pat Corrales, Doc Edwards, Frank Robinson -- that's where I ran out of names, but there are a great many -- basically everyone after Lou Boudreau.
So things are looking grim, not even Harry Doyle can turn this season around -- though the Indians ability to regress to the mean just may. See you at the 12th pick of next year's draft, ladies and gentlemen.
The Indians are now down, by last count, six players -- three of whom should have been dealt (Betancourt, Garko, and DeRosa -- in that order), three of whom absolutely should not have been dealt (Martinez, Francisco and Lee -- in that order, for reasons I'll cover later). Somehow, however, the Indians still have the two players that everyone knows they needed to trade -- Jamey Carroll and Carl Pavano. Pavano just threw 8 innings of one-run ball, so perhaps his trade value will have increased slightly, but I won't hold my breath. Jamey Carroll just needed to be traded because he's on his way out anyway and he's cheap enough that borderline contenders can just claim him on waivers and barely care if they get stuck with him.
And, because they've now dumped all those players, they are up one Eric Wedge, who has gained an additional year of immunity for incompetence, because the Indians would never fire a manager because he's incapable of competing with inferior talent. Well, the post-Mark Shapiro-firing-Charlie Manuel-for-exactly-that-reason-Indians wouldn't, anyway. Not that it did John McNamara, Pat Corrales, Doc Edwards, Frank Robinson -- that's where I ran out of names, but there are a great many -- basically everyone after Lou Boudreau.
So things are looking grim, not even Harry Doyle can turn this season around -- though the Indians ability to regress to the mean just may. See you at the 12th pick of next year's draft, ladies and gentlemen.
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