Live from the corner of Carnegie and Ontario...

I don't have much explanation for it. I'm not from Cleveland, I've lived in a half dozen cities of some note (or suburbs, at least), but not one of them seems to connect with me. I'm not, contrary to my Twitter handle, a DC maven, I'm certainly no power broker. When I set foot in Dayton and its surroundings, it just seems foreign to me. I root against the Huskers anytime they're not playing Iowa, so we can rule Nebraska out in a hurry.

I am an Ohio guy to be sure. When I remember growing up, my childhood was more about Butler By'not'e, Raymont Harris, and Greg Frey than it was about Reagan, Bush, or Clinton. But my childhood was spent ay Riverfront Stadium watching the Reds lose, always lose. I saw Kal Daniels pull a hamstring on a ground rule double, I saw Tracy Jones pitch. I apparently saw the Beach Boys...but I was three. And I've been back to Cincinnati. Let me assure you I've never belonged anywhere less. You could drop me in Midtown Manhattan, San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, or Miami and all of them would make more sense than Kentucky's neighbor. It's a red city, I'm a blue person. In both senses.

And so Cleveland feels like home. It's just me. It's a city that's about struggle -- joys are few, far between, and fleeting -- every celebration is premature and defeat is around every corner.

Except this one.

No matter what happens tonight, this is a tremendous team. They are champions, and I'm glad I get to be here tonight no matter what. And if, through fortune and skill, I get to be back here Monday, I will be overjoyed.

Go Tribe. Thank you for making me at least a temporary denizen of Tribetown in October.

Mitch Albom -- intellectual titan

Miguel Cabrera is a tremendous hitter, one of the best the game has seen in an incredibly long time. He would be, if baseball consisted solely of hitting, likely the best player of the last decade and only Albert Pujols has a right to be mentioned in the same breath as him. In 2010, he almost certainly should have won the MVP. In 2012, he should have finished no lower than second. One could, I believe, make an argument that Miguel Cabrera could be the MVP in 2012.

On the other hand, one could just scream that he is the MVP and rejoice in vanquishing a straw man who do not willfully blind themselves to knowledge, facts, analysis, and meaningful comparison.

I'll let you guess which Mitch Albom chooses.

Mitch Albom: Miguel Cabrera's award a win for fans, defeat for stats geeks

Ok, maybe you don't have to guess.

The Selig Test

Thus far this season, two Indians starters (and no other pitchers) have been suspended for "intentionally" throwing at hitters.

Ubaldo Jimenez was suspended 6 games after hitting his BFF Troy Tulowitzki in his final spring training start (in an inning where he walked two other batters).

Jeanmar Gomez got a five-game suspension for hitting Mike Moustakas in retaliation after Jonathan Sanchez hit Shin-Soo Choo (a season after he broke Choo's hand).

Gomez's HBP was certainly intentional; he threw behind Moustakas before plunking him with his second effort. Jimenez has the personality that suggests he threw at Tulowitzki, but it was not abundantly clear he intended the pitch to hit him (his real crime was reacting the way he did, which suggested if he didn't intend to hit him, he was still very comfortable iwth it). Hamels acknowledged his intent, saying "I was trying to hit him, I'm not going to deny it", but says "I'm not going to injure a guy."

Really?

No...really???

I should explain some things to Cole Hamels. First, force = mass times acceleration. A baseball isn't very massive, but it moves pretty fast, especially when you, protector of the Ark of the Baseball Covenant, throw a fastball. While you were "not going to injure anyone", you were hurling a baseball at a rate of 93 mph. That has a phenomenally good chance of ... injuring someone. If you don't believe me, well, ask Shin-Soo Choo, David Freese, Jeff Bagwell, or the players who broke hands or wrists from hit by pitches. Ask Ray Chapman, Tony Conigliaro, Kirby Puckett, Marlon Byrd, or any number of people who suffered concussions or worse from being hit in the head. And yes, you were a gentleman, you threw at his back. But hey, you may remember, o, lord high keeper of the faith, when your Phillies legend predecessor Mike Schmidt got ribs broken when he got hit by a pitch.

Second, you are really not the guy who should be sending a lecture about honor and "how the game works". "The honorable game" you're protecting here doesn't abide by pitchers who show up their teammates when they commit errors. Old school baseball would consist of you having to spend your offseasons working at real jobs, or at the very least, not demanding in excess of $20 million a year. And I think the next time you see Bob Feller posing with a WWE champion would have been the first.

Despite living in Washington, I can't say I'm a big fan of Bryce Harper. I will say that for all his arrogance over the past few years, since he got to the Majors, he's been a class act and has been incredibly boring off the field. And if you hit him with a pitch, so be it. Things happen. Appointing himself baseball's honorary night watchman should have gotten Hamels ejected; it had better get him suspended longer than Jimenez. Otherwise Jimenez's next hit by pitch should be a called shot. That way he can make it back in time for his next start.

I have no confidence Selig will pass this test. But if he is actually interested in playing fair, instead of just suspending only Indians, Hamels should have a couple starts off.

You would think...

that after the last two games, Manny Acta would be a little reluctant
to sub out actual hitters for pinch runners -- leaving Jason Donald as
the Indians' DH.

You would think that. And clearly, you would be wrong. And since the
rest of the 'pen has pitched, it's nigh on inevitable that Chris Perez
is about to blow his second save.

--
Sent from my mobile device

Indians one of three identified to be options for Josh Willingham

So, let's see if my introduction to logic class still works.

1) Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has tweeted that the Indians are one of three teams (the others being the Twins and Rockies) that are most likely to sign Josh Willingham.
2) I like Josh Willingham. He is a good player. He's an above average and generally underappreciated hitter who has put up solid numbers in some dreadful hitting parks (FLA, WAS, OAK).
3) I love the Indians and want them to succeed.
4) The Indians need another outfielder.
5) I do not want them to sign Josh Willingham.

Only an Indians fan (or a fan of a team that's truly pitiful -- say, the Royals or Pirates) can understand that this is entirely logical.  This would appear to be a huge logical gaffe to a Dodgers fan, a White Sox fan, or a Twins fan.  But that's because this is the move of a team that feels they just need to get a little bit better -- a team that can look at their roster and say 'if we can squeeze one more better than average player into the lineup, we're in the playoffs!"

The Indians aren't that team.

Now hold off. I am not issuing a forecast of gloom and doom for the Tribe. I'm excited by 2012 in a way I never would have thought possible in March of last year (or after the first two games of the year, where I thought the Indians had a genuine chance of going 0-162).  My forecast is, admittedly, one of profound fatalism and inevitability.  But it's one that actually could skew positive.  I'm here to tell you that Josh Willingham is essentially irrelevant because the Indians' futures will be controlled by the production from a load of other variables.

In a couple spots, the Indians cannot match the Tigers. They will not have Miguel Cabrera or Justin Verlander in 2012.  They will not have players as good as those. Period.  The difference between Masterson and Verlander is much more ephemeral than people would ever admit, but there's still a gap there and it doesn't favor the Indians. If Alex Avila's 2011 is for real, you know, despite having a magnificent catcher, we probably aren't going to match that. 

But more significantly, the Indians just have a load of question marks that because of a lack of depth will likely determine the Indians' success or failure. Here's how I see the opening day roster right now:
SP - Masterson, Jimenez, Carmona, Lowe, Tomlin - Tomlin is the only one who could fall out for non-injury reasons, and he strikes me as the second coming of Mitch Talbot, but I think he's safe to fend off Huff/Gomez for now.
RP - Perez, C., Perez, R., Smith, Pestano, Hagadone, Sipp. Herrmann - This is an odd bullpen because it'd have 3 left-handers, but I think Hagadone has to stay. Maybe Huff or Gomez makes the team as a long reliever at the expense of Hagadone or Herrmann, but if that's the case, the Indians need to move Hagadone back to being a starter so he can be useful to the club down the road.
C - Santana, Marson - there's a good argument for carrying three catchers so they can use Santana as a full-time 1B, but Marson doesn't hit enough to play him that much.
IF - LaPorta, Kipnis, Cabrera, Chisenhall, Donald, Phelps - there's no other full-time first basemen on the roster or in the organization, so LaPorta is at least in some role with this team until they make a move (like signing Willingham). There's a chance Phelps won't be on the roster, the alternative would likely be Ezequiel Carrera (which, in case you're not as worldly as I am, is Spanish for "Trevor Crowe", because that's the level of non-production you'll get from him) or Jack Hannahan, who is hard to carry on the roster without some demonstrable ability to play 2B.
OF - Brantley, Sizemore, Choo, Duncan - my spanish is rusty, but I believe Ezequiel Carrera is Spanish for Trevor Crowe. He is not a major league player. So there's definitely reason to consider signing an outfielder. 
DH - Hafner - I always forget this guy. Poor Travis Hafner.  He's probably my second favorite Indians player ever (after Lofton), but he's become such an afterthought.

Let's address these in order of significance.
1) Ubaldo Jimenez - if Ubaldo Jimenez pitches like he did in 2011, the Indians are done. They aren't going anywhere north of second place without a huge pitching season from someone else -- and with Carrasco shelved for 2012, there's not likely to be another # 2 starter.  Unless...

2) Fausto Carmona - I know, I know. He's had one great season, one very good season and a whole lot of mediocre or worse seasons.  But last year he got stung with some real bad luck -- his ERA was over a run over his xFIP, his FIP was .39 higher than his xFIP -- he should have been decent, but his season was bad.  But it also was a season of pockmarks more than anything. He had a couple astonishingly bad starts that really made his season look atrocious. If he could have just gotten the flu before his opening day start, his ERA would have been .40 lower.  If he'd simply missed the game on September 6, he'd have dropped his ERA by .31.  In other words, as mediocre as Carmona was, two atrocious starts made up .71 of his ERA.  He misses those starts, he has a 4.74 ERA and is firmly within the realm of adequacy.  The ship has sailed on Carmona being an ace. It's abundantly clear that 2007 is the outlier in his career. But that doesn't keep him from being a # 3 starter. And if Jimenez performs the task he was acquired to perform, that's all Carmona needs to be.

3) Grady Sizemore - Ugh. Here is my prediction for Grady Sizemore in 2011. .000/.000/.000.  He'll get injured in spring training and miss 2012. That's my projection. You know why that's my projection? Because if it's not that, then there's simply no discernable projection left.  Sizemore in 2012 is basically like Travis Hafner in 2011 -- all we know is that he used to be a fantastic player and that in the years he hasn't been fantastic, he's been significantly injured.  That doesn't mean he still is a fantastic player, it doesn't prove that he's finished. It just proves that what's past is past.  But Sizemore, despite having no projection left in him, is the most critical hitter because the Indians simply don't have a replacement for pre-2009 Grady Sizemore. Michael Brantley is an adequate CF offensively, but he's not going to provide much in the way of power. Sizemore could do that -- and did during his fantastic debut to the 2011 season.  In April, Sizemore was better than he'd ever been. He had never had a month that good. It was only 11 games, certainly, but he'd never had an 11 game stretch that was that productive before. Then he fell off in May back into the realm of sustainability, but spiked again with home runs in back to back games and then...injured.  He went on the DL, rushed back, played very poorly for a lengthy stretch, went on the DL until September, came back and played poorly for a while. So what did we learn? Lord if I know. He's not going to do April for an entire season. But he's never been bad when he's actually healthy.  Which he most likely will never be.  But oh, if he were...

4) Shin-Soo Choo - 2011 was as fantastic a season as you could have hoped for if you wanted people to never notice that Shin-Soo Choo had become one of the best players in baseball.  Unfortunately, the reason for this was because he was no longer one of the best players in baseball, he was just a adequate hitter with a great arm. In 2011, he got caught stealing (12/17 success rate = not worth stealing bases), got caught drunk driving (0.20 = not worth driving), and he became a drag on a team that he'd carried out of the realm of awfulness the prior two seasons. A 2010-level Choo wouldn't have won the division for the Indians, but it would have kept it close into September instead of letting Detroit launch to a ridiculous 15 game win on the back of the real difference-maker in the AL (Doug Fister, which we can hope is merely new English for "Doyle Alexander"). And maybe it would have kept the Indians from making desperation moves to try and stay in a race from which they were fading (see #1).

5) Lonnie Chisenhall - As much as Sizemore is the linchpin for the entire offense, Chisenhall is likely second, because he plays a relatively premium offensive position and is one of the most projectable players in the organization.  With the Jimenez trade stripping the Indians of their top-end prospects, Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis are what's left.  Kipnis acquitted himself admirably in the major leagues and looks ready for the challenge of playing every day -- albeit with a likely regression from his power-drenched 2011 stint.  Chisenhall looked like he was Jack Hannahan without the glove. He was impatient, chased everything off the plate, and went from being a hitter who could work counts to a 3-pitch strikeout.  He still hit for a solid slugging percentage, but got on base so rarely that he provided an offensive regression from Hannahan (whose numbers for the year reeked of respectable major league status, despite a lengthy history reflecting the contrary).  Chisenhall doesn't have to become Adrian Beltre in order for the Indians to succeed. But he does have to become Casey Blake -- a hitter whose average won't ever shine, but who can hit 20+ home runs and get on base. 

6) The wasteland at the right corner of the infield - it has been 9 years since the Indians had a first baseman worthy of playing a premium offensive position. 2012 is not about to change this. Shelley "Mr. AAAA" Duncan is currently the most potent option at the first base spot, because Matt LaPorta actually looked worse in 2011 than he ever had before. Yes, LaPorta was hurt, but unless his eyes were injured, that's not much of a comfort. His walks were cut in half in 2011, his power went up, but only to a threshold of mere acceptability (again, we can summon our memories of Casey Blake). Duncan, despite having never warranted substantial playing time in his career, flat out outhit LaPorta. He worked counts, drew walks, hit the same 11 HR LaPorta did, he just did it all in a crazy 7-HR September when it didn't matter because the season was over and the team was in utter freefall. Could Duncan actually hit like he did in 2011 over an entire season?  Answer: probably not. He's been productive in the minors, but only at stages where he was too old for his level. He is worthy of a roster spot and is an acceptable player.  But he's not going to be what Matt LaPorta was supposed to be -- that long-cherished 30 HR, .500+ SLG first baseman that Jim Thome gave us from '97-02. And that is what a legitimate contender is going to have at first base.  Only loaded teams like the Rangers can make do with less.

So there you have it. The Indians have no fewer than 6 major question marks from the 25 spots on the roster -- and 4 every day starters in that lineup.  What the team needs is insurance -- Sizemore is not a likely candidate to play 162 games. Brantley is there as an option in CF, but if Sizemore goes on the DL -- someone else will be needed. 

Unless things have changed markedly, Willingham is going to prove to be too expensive to be an insurance policy (I have little doubt he'll demand -- and get -- in the range of $8-10 million per year). But he won't offer anywhere near that value to the Indians.  He hasn't shown he can play 1B every day -- he has 4 innings there for his career, so he can't be used as an upgrade to the position where the best option is an unknown quantity with a low ceiling. 

He's superior offensive LF to Michael Brantley, but his defense eats up those gains (in fact, because of Brantley's defensive ability, baseball-reference puts Brantley at a higher WAR for 2011 - 2.2 to 1.8).  So LF isn't likely a marked upgrade.

And so your reason to invest in a Josh Willingham (and the three years at which such a conversation would start) is because you think Michael Brantley will be needed in CF. And if you think Michael Brantley is needed in CF, then you shouldn't have signed Grady Sizemore. And signing a player on the theory that he can spend some time at DH just doesn't make sense when you consider those DHs who can't find demand in the marketplace.  Even knowing that David Ortiz can never play in the field, his value over Willingham's is exponential.  Talent at DH now strikes me as the most undervalued commodity on the market -- and the amazing collapse of Adam Dunn is likely to only exacerbate this inefficiency.  The money would be better spent for a player that offers some offensive production, but also defensive value.  In this market, that's Cody Ross -- a player I loathe, but think would make a lot more sense for the Indians because of his ability to play some CF and keep Ezequiel Carrera far away from the major leagues.   

Welcome back, FJM!

So a lot has happened through 12 games, the Indians became media darlings, then immediately dropped two games, and for all their greatness, we're still inhabiting a world where the Red Sox are 2-9 and the Royals are a game back of first place, so it's too early to celebrate a turnaround. But there are at least signs of optimism.

Rather than start a blog called Fire Howard Bryant, I'm going to point out some of the myriad problems with this article. It is only that I feel comfortable that my blog will not generate more than three or four hits on this piece of garbage that I can do so in good conscience. (In true FJM style, his words are in italics, mine are not.)

Barry Bonds, baseball's all-time home run leader and from 2000 to 2004 easily the most dominant player since Babe Ruth, will wake up Thursday as a convicted felon.

Or a cockroach, if Kafka was onto something. Maybe even a porpoise. That'd be totally cool.

A San Franciso [sic] jury convicted him of obstruction of justice.

If only they'd been given rice-a-roni. It was not a San Francisco jury. He was tried in the Northern District of California, so that means there were people in the jury panel from Santa Rosa, Petaluma, Salinas, Oakland, Eureka, San Jose. But, obviously, the jury's potential residence in a large city makes it very different. If this were one of those god-forsaken Petaluma juries, they'd just be off their rocker and Bonds would be an untainted legend of the game.

Roger Clemens, arguably the game's greatest pitcher, faces the possibility of a similar fate.

I think if you argue that Clemens is the game's greatest pitcher, you are arguably an idiot, but fine, he was a great pitcher.

Seven times a Cy Young Award winner, Clemens will go on trial this summer for lying to Congress.

Once, twice, three times a Cy Young winner...uh...this sentence has been brought to you by the Commodores.

Indians to sign Nick Johnson

The Tribe is reportedly on the verge of signing Nick Johnson.  Now here's a deal that makes some sense, even if it's not a world-beater.  First, it's a minor league deal, no one's getting shuttled off the roster for Johnson, who may very well be starting the season on the 60-day DL even if he were on the 40-man.  Second, there's no sense in pretending there's not a gigantic question mark playing first for the Indians this year.  If Johnson can play the field (and setting aside the collision with the Indians' current left fielder, he's not found a way to get hurt doing that), he's a decent reserve option, even if he's more punchless than what you'd like from a first baseman.  Even with the dearth of power, though, the guy still churns out great OPS+ numbers because you just can't keep him off first base (career OBP is .401).

 

Will this work out? Almost certainly not -- he can't swing a bat even though his surgery was in May of last year, he's had back issues, and he was considered a DH-only player when the Yankees signed him last year.  But could the Tribe have added a possible DH to spell Hafner and a first baseman who can get on at a .380 clip and maybe rediscover a power stroke for 20 doubles? Yes. And when the only other "first baseman" the Tribe has is catcher Carlos Santana, it doesn't hurt to have Johnson around, because Santana can't be an every day guy when the Indians don't have any catching in the high minors pipeline (or 40-man roster).

The Curse of Chris Antonetti

Austin Kearns arrested on suspicion of DUI.  Well, let's just hope this is the worst offseason Chris Antonetti ever has.  Thus far, he's signed a fourth outfielder who got himself arrested, a second baseman who is neither a second baseman nor a marked upgrade over the current slate of misfits and incompetents, and a middle reliever who is okay, but serves no real purpose on a team that's destined to hit 100 losses.

I think Kearns is the best signing (though given our common surname, I probably just like being able to phrase it that way), but this isn't exactly encouraging news.

MLB allows Red Sox a 41-man roster

Well, try as I might, I just cannot see how this is an acceptable contract under Major League Baseball league rules. Andrew Miller, the once-promising Tigers prospect who flamed out in Florida, has signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox. He could have gotten major league contracts from the Pirates and Indians of the world, but he's with the Red Sox.

That's something baseball can't fix. People will take less to win, just the same as the Heat loaded up on decent veteran players who decided to take 50% or greater pay cuts to play with Wade/James/Bosh.

Miller's contract, on the other hand, is not the same thing.  The contract he has with the Red Sox is egregious and unfair to the game.  If the Red Sox put him on the major league roster, he gets $1.3 million.  Fair enough. If he then gets sent to the minors, because he can no longer be optioned, he would have to be designated for assignment and, therefore, made available to all teams.  But in this case, it's different. If he gets DFA'd and someone claims him, he has an option for $3 million that vests for 2012.  In other words, the Red Sox have a ready-made 41-man roster, because they can take him off the 40-man at will, so long as no one feels interested in paying $3 million for a player the Red Sox deemed unworthy of playing in the majors.

That MLB allows this kind of provision defeats the entire purpose of being designated for assignment.  The 40-man roster is supposed to make it so that teams like the Red Sox will occasionally have to lose off 26th men that might prove to be solid roster pieces -- or even starters -- for lesser clubs.  Instead, it will just make the rich richer -- players will sign these poison pill contracts with the teams they don't want to leave -- the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Phillies -- but the Indians? No way.  Bud Selig needs to exercise his authority to act in the best interests of baseball and void the contract.

As a side note, this blog will now be mirrored at MLBLogs

Indians sign Orlando Cabrera

You know those environmental ads from the 1970s that had an Indian (given what this blog covers, I should emphasize that I mean a Native American and not, say, Rico Carty or Rick Manning) seeing a polluted and litter-covered landscape shedding a single tear? (Well, I don't, not really, I was born in 1980.)  But, since for some reason I am culturally aware of them, that's pretty much the response I have to the latest Indians signing.  It takes such little effort to not litter, to not spew toxic pollution into the sky, and to not sign Orlando Cabrera. And yet people do these things anyway.

Which, whatever, I'm sure there's a reason to sign Orlando Cabrera to a minor league deal, let him come to camp Grudzielanek-style, then release him in May despite the fact that he's playing better than the alternatives (again, Grudzielanek-style) to make room for a worthless player like Luis Valbuena to negative-WAR his way through the season. The move also means that the Indians could move Asdrubal Cabrera back to second base and see if that helps their woeful infield defense or it means that Orlando Cabrera is a candidate to replace Jayson "The Head Lice Eliminator" Nix.

Nope. Wrong (major league deal). Wrong (won't play as well as Grudzielanek, who was an experienced 2B and a career 90 OPS+ player, well better than Cabrera, though Cabrera has a chance to notch an extra-base hit this season -- more than Grudz did in his 30 hits last year). Wrong (AsCab's staying at shortstop). Wrong (reports have Cabrera playing second base). 0-for-4. Well, that looks pretty much identical to what Cabrera's statline will 4 days a week.

So let me be the first to say...Ugh.

Kenny Lofton: Hall of Famer?

A week ago, America's greatest living writer Joe Posnanski (with all apologies to Michael Chabon, despite being nominally a sportswriter, Posnanski covers a lot broader turf), in explaining his Hall of Fame vote for Tim Raines, analyzed the greatest leadoff hitters -- in that they met certain criteria (lineup position was not actually among these). The takeaway from it was that Raines was a clear hall of famer. But that wasn't the end of it. Rather, as a final note, Posnanski added: The other thing about that "great leadoff hitters" list? Yeah, Kenny Lofton was probably a better player than you remembered."

Now Rob Neyer is on the Kenny Lofton bandwagon. Well, maybe, like Posnanski, he doesn't say Lofton is a Hall of Famer, but he certainly implies it's a question worthy of consideration. Neyer states, "I believe Barry Larkin gets in next year. That leaves seven holdovers in 2013 ... who will be joined by Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Craig Biggio, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, and the terribly underrated Kenny Lofton."

And I guess I'm just taken aback by it.

I love Kenny Lofton. Love the guy unabashedly.

You can't spell punto without punt.

Ugh. Please let the mutual interest be in stamp collecting.

Signing Nick Punto would solve one problem, it would solve the problem of who in the Indians infield can field. It would create some problems in that he's a worse hitter than you would ever want to have in your lineup. Here was my response when the Twins mistakenly gave him 2 years and $8 million. And he was more useful then. Really, he's adequate at shortstop and respectable at third base. But to call his hitting anemic is an insult to people who have anemia. Fangraphs' WAR looks on him favorably, giving him over 1 WAR each of the last three years. Baseball-reference...well, let's just say they disagree. And looking at b-r's oWAR numbers, I don't know how on earth they figured them. I don't know how a .228/.337/.271 season adds up to .8 wins contributed. Maybe it's the 16 steals?

I know there's not much on the third base/utility infield market aside from the dreaded Craig Counsell, but I'd rather have stuck with Andy Marte at third base than spend actual American currency to acquire Nick Punto, whose bat and glove fall short of the legendary Indians relief pitcher. Punto's only add is versatility, being able to not hit at three different spots on the infield. For that, the Indians would be better off waiting until February and picking the best of what's left. Punto will still be out there, unless Dayton Moore gets to him first. Willie Bloomquist and Jerry Hairston Jr. might be as well. You don't go utility infielder bargain shopping in early December unless you are Ruben Amaro, Jr. And that leads to things like giving Juan Castro money to play baseball.

Indians Outlook for 2011

The Indians' offseason really kicks off today. For all the buzz surrounding the key signing of Luke Carlin, it won't compare to the Indians signing players who aren't intended solely to wear a jersey number greater than 60 in spring training. Today may add a number of players to the Indians' shopping list, since it's the non-tender deadline -- an opportunity to buy players who other clubs are giving up early on or that they simply don't believe are worth the contracts that they'd have to be tendered.

Alas, only players fitting into the former category are likely to wash ashore in Cleveland. Players like Hideki Okajima and Matt Diaz are likely to get some form of actual money somewhere, they will just do so as free agents.

Thus far, the deadline has been relatively quiet -- Bobby Jenks is far and away the biggest name non-tendered, and it's a certainty he'll find work somewhere other than Ontario and Carnegie.

A number of the players who have already been non-tendered are former Indians themselves.

God Bless You, Seattle's Finest (not the coffee place in Borders)

Seattle traffic officer cites Chicago White Sox GM for jaywalking.

38% of everything is right with the world. An all-time high!

My favorite is the ridiculous slant that Whitesox.com put on the article. Jaywalking is rarely ticketed in big cities, which Williams tried to explain to the officer. Stupid police officer, not understanding what Williams was so kind to attempt to explain to him. Doesn't he know anything about what violations of the law he's obligated to ignore because they don't enforce them in most cities? I'm pretty sure that the Chicago police have exclusive authority to enforce Kenny Williams' inability to read a don't walk sign, and fear we may have another beer summit coming up.

The Age of Incredulity, anyone?

There's really a tale of two cities in the AL Central. Cleveland, the team that's stocking all the teams fading in the playoff races in the AL and NL because they apparently can't afford to pay Ben Francisco (more on that righteous indignation later), and Chicago, where they're taking on salary left and right to make a run to...lord knows what. The latter city is now going to be known as the place where once-five-tool outfielders go to die -- very wealthily. Not content with just three horsemen of the RF apocalypse in the forms of Milton Bradley, Kosuke Fukudome, and Jermaine Dye, Kenny Williams has acquired Alex Rios from the Toronto Blue Jays for a song.

The song? Squeeze's immortal classic "Take Me, I'm Yours." (Not nearly as good as "Pulling Mussels (from the Shell)")

So the consensus around baseball is that Kenny Williams is an idiot. I'm inclined to agree because he continues to employ Ozzie Guillen, but as questionable as this deal is, I really have a hard time seeing it completely blow up on the White Sox.

Oh, the contract's not good, that much is obvious. In 2010, Rios will make $9.7 million. In 2011, that number's $12 million. In 2012, $12 million more. In 2013, why not, $12.5 million. In 2014, $12.5 million more. And in 2015, the White Sox now hold a critical team option (whew, that makes it all better) for $13.5 million. But is the contract really that bad? I don't think so. The contract info comes from Cot's Baseball Contracts, one of the three or four most useful baseball sites I know of, and I cannot commend it enough.

1) Rios' numbers were down last year, and haven't improved much this year, with his OPS+ actually falling below 100. I'll grant you that's a bad sign, especially following up last year's disappointing year (where Rios posted a 111 OPS+). Of course, if you, like me, are the only person in the world who applies MOPS (add SB to total bases, subtract CS), then you factor in the speed as well, which puts Rios at a .780 MOPS. Not great, but not far off from the kind of player for whom you expect to pay money.

2) The primary decay factor on Rios appears to be his speed. This isn't a good sign for a guy who's 28 years old. But if you look at his numbers from 2008 to 2009, the falloff is in BABIP (.335 in 2008 to .294 in 2009). Moreover, since his peak year in 2007, when he grounded into only 9 double plays, he hit into 20 last year and has already mustered 14 this year. And the decay in slugging isn't in home runs (where he's on pace to hit several more than he did last year), it's in doubles, where he notched 47 last year but is on pace for only 37 this year.

3) Rios' BABIP this year is .294, after he'd posted numbers circling around .330 for his career. .294 is a low figure for a player with any sort of power or any sort of speed, I would expect it to come up. BABIP's not a vastly-reliable number for position players, but it means something.

4) Though his speed's falling off, he's a dead even 0 on UZR, meaning he's a league average right fielder. His arm in right field has either waned or baserunners have simply learned their lesson, because after posting more than 10 OF assists in 3 of the last 5 years, he's only mustered 4 this year. So, he's a considerable upgrade in RF from Jermaine Dye, but not much else. However, his career UZR is +14, meaning that he's saved his team an average of 14 runs each year he's been in the big leagues. That's...phenomenal.

5) Here's the biggest concern I would have if I'm a White Sox fan looking at his 2009 numbers. His numbers on the road are atrocious. In every category. You take this guy out of the Rogers Centre and he's a .237/.278/.339 hitter. What's more, he can't run (though some of this is attributable to him getting on that much less -- 14 steals at home (1 caught stealing), 5 on the road (2 caught stealing).

And here's where I tell you all this is bullshit and I think Kenny Williams is going to end up with at least a non-disgraceful acquisition out of this. The home-road splits are a 2009-only phenomenon. Although I'd normally suspect that a guy who makes his game based on speed is just flying because of the turf in the dome, but his past home-road splits are pretty even. But now you're getting him off the turf, which is admittedly now FieldTurf, but is still not going to be as kind on his legs as natural grass. FieldTurf leads to a lot of muscle pulls and strains -- exactly the sorts of injuries that reduce Rios to a remarkably mediocre player.

Rios is an insurance policy, because the White Sox have just about no one in the minors worth owning, particularly in the outfield. They have no high-level outfield prospects, they have Jermaine Dye in the last year of his own prohibitively expensive contract, and they have been playing Brent Lillibridge and Scott Podsednik in center field. Rios solves at least one of those problems, because now they have a long-term investment, but also have cost certainty. Considering that the economy is showing signs of modest recovery and that baseball has always outstripped the economy in cost growth, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Rios' contract looks pretty commensurate with his production in a year or two. Keep in mind that Alex Rodriguez is currently making $30+ million and Manny and Teixeira are making $20+ million dollars. I'd give Rios a much better chance of living up to his contract value than, say, Ryan Howard.

And, barring economic growth leading to Rios becoming an adequate deal, he should put up a little better power numbers in U.S. Cellular. Though the two are roughly equivalent in park factors for 2009, U.S. Cellular is consistently among the top five home run generating parks in baseball -- the SkyDome is 8th this year, but has varied by about ten spots from that spot. Fangraphs had a similar analysis, though I'd hesitate to go as far as they will, because the Rogers Centre is usually in the top 10, last year appears to be a one-off.

Also consider that the White Sox might not have had much in the way of alternatives in 2010. The top free agent corner outfielders? Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Bobby Abreu, Jermaine Dye, Andruw Jones, and Johnny Damon. Bay and Holliday will cost far more than the $9.7 million Rios would draw -- and the other four are both old and defensively deficient. The only other outfielder on the free agent list for 2010 that might spark any interest is Rick Ankiel, and Scott Boras would probably expect to be paid about $9.7 million for his lousy production. Trading for an outfielder isn't an option, because as I pointed out, this system is bare. They have Dayan Viciedo, they have Tyler Flowers, ...and then they have little else. They traded most of their pitchers for Peavy, they traded Brandon Allen for Tony Pena...and their other prospects are a couple years away (Jordan Danks) or underachieving (John Shelby Jr.).

So could this deal be a terrible one? Sure. If Rios learns to enjoy Chicago deep dish pizza and loses a step, they're overpaying out the nose for a mediocre corner outfielder. But in the meantime, it gets them a player who might benefit from life away from FieldTurf, can hit both left and right handed pitching, and can fill any number of holes in a porous system.

And it's a great move because I'm an Indians fan who would be forced to admit that hates the White Sox more than anything on this earth when it really comes down to it. That pessimism seals the deal. Great move for Kenny Williams.

Chief Wahoo's Trail of Tears -- a Cleveland Indians blog

For all the fans that the Cleveland Indians have, and there are a great many, so long as you only conduct your fan census more than 30 miles from the intersection of Carnegie and Ontario, there's not much in the way of Indians blogs out there. Given that all the Indians have for several years is rampant speculation, now seemed like a uniquely suitable time to put my unwarranted speculation, moaning, and Eric Wedge-criticizing into one convenient location.

The Indians are now down, by last count, six players -- three of whom should have been dealt (Betancourt, Garko, and DeRosa -- in that order), three of whom absolutely should not have been dealt (Martinez, Francisco and Lee -- in that order, for reasons I'll cover later). Somehow, however, the Indians still have the two players that everyone knows they needed to trade -- Jamey Carroll and Carl Pavano. Pavano just threw 8 innings of one-run ball, so perhaps his trade value will have increased slightly, but I won't hold my breath. Jamey Carroll just needed to be traded because he's on his way out anyway and he's cheap enough that borderline contenders can just claim him on waivers and barely care if they get stuck with him.

And, because they've now dumped all those players, they are up one Eric Wedge, who has gained an additional year of immunity for incompetence, because the Indians would never fire a manager because he's incapable of competing with inferior talent. Well, the post-Mark Shapiro-firing-Charlie Manuel-for-exactly-that-reason-Indians wouldn't, anyway. Not that it did John McNamara, Pat Corrales, Doc Edwards, Frank Robinson -- that's where I ran out of names, but there are a great many -- basically everyone after Lou Boudreau.

So things are looking grim, not even Harry Doyle can turn this season around -- though the Indians ability to regress to the mean just may. See you at the 12th pick of next year's draft, ladies and gentlemen.